NFL Gambling Money Line

by admin on August 20, 2014

While pointspread/side wagering is the most popular and commonly used form of NFL gambling there are a wide variety of other options that a gambler can play with if he prefers.

There is no more common lament amongst NFL gamblers than having the team that won the game straight up but failed to cover the spread. It drives gamblers absolutely nuts. There is a way, however, for a gambler to avoid this problem and that is with the “Money line.”

The money line is a form of NFL gambling in which the bettor chooses a team in a matchup but instead of laying or getting points he instead lays out odds/money or bets on the odds and plus money. This is very similar to how you would bet baseball or hockey.

For example, let’s take a look at a game between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. The regular pointspread would read Dallas-6 but the money line would instead read Dallas-320/Arizona +280.

If a gambler in this matchup wanted Dallas he would lay out $320 to win $100 profit. All Dallas would have to do is win the game, regardless of by how many points, for the gambler to profit. Should Dallas win, the gambler would get his $320 back PLUS the $100 he won with the wager.

If a gambler wanted Arizona he would bet $100 to win $280 since the Cardinals would be the underdog in the matchup. If Arizona won the game straight up the gambler would get back his $100 PLUS the $280 he won for the bet.

The money line is a high risk but potentially high reward way to participate in NFL gambling. Many seasoned professional gamblers swear by the money line and actually utilize it to make a living at pro football gambling.

The appeal of the money line is obvious, no more screwing around sweating out “back door covers” on losing teams that get a late meaningless score to cover the spread, even as they lose the game. The money line, to many pros in NFL gambling, is purchasing peace of mind and keeping things “simple.”

As long as a gambler doesn’t lose on heavy chalks, it’s a great alternative.

Betting Underdogs

Too many people make the mistake of wagering on the favorites too often when they bet On NFL football games. When it comes to the point spread, there is more or less a 50/50 chance that the underdog will win. With the money line, this is less often the case, but any given Sunday …

When picking NFL games, you should know that any information that you can gather on the teams has already been gathered and processed by the oddsmakers. These games are some of the most heavily wagered, so there isn’t that much of a chance that you will find an edge over the bookmakers. The exception to this rule is when the general public is skewed one way or another and forces the initial line to chance.

You should look for games where an overwhelming amount of people are betting on the favorites to win. This will be a good time to try to make some money on the underdog as the line will favor betting on them. In the case of the spread, the points may shift between 1 to 3 points in some cases. With the money line, there will be a higher payout for the underdog. Select the teams that you feel confident about winning and compare them with the oddsmaker’s initial line. Those teams that get bet up should be avoided, while those that get a more favorable line should be targeted.

This isn’t to say that you should always bet on underdogs, as there are times where the favorites simply won’t get the respect that they deserve. This is especially early on in the season. Some teams heat up right away like the Broncos did last year and the sportsbooks don’t keep up with the favorites bettors hitting on them. You should be selective with your underdog picks and always use common sense.

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Five Steps for Betting on Horse Races

by admin on April 28, 2014

Wagering on horse racing has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, thanks mainly to simulcasting and the Internet. While this has made it easier to place bets on hundreds of tracks around the country, the “information age” has also narrowed the gap between the sharp horseplayer and the novice.

When I look back to how I handicapped and bet the races 30 years ago, the only thing missing is Barney Rubble and Fred Flintstone. I carried around a tattered notebook with my homemade speed figures, used my VCR (it ws a Beta) to tape the races nightly to add to my video library, and kept notes with trainer and jockey tendencies.

Back in 1986 I got more than a few funny looks from the librarian when I spent three days at the public library accumulating par times to make my own speed figures for racing in Maryland, going through over a year of charts in The Washington Post. It was three of the most boring days I have spent in my life, but over the next several years my homemade speed figures served up winner after winner.

That came to a screeching halt in 1990 with the creation of The Racing Times. The paper only lasted two years but published the Beyer Speed Figures, giving most horseplayers their first taste of true adjusted speed figures. My top speed horses were often Andy’s as well. My prices plummeted. The Times only lasted two years but the Beyers then landed in The Daily Racing Form.

I have not been in a library since.

The VCR and my library of tapes were the next handicapping tools that went into the trash heap. With TVG and HRTV, it’s easy to see all the tracks and both networks show replay shows the following mornings. If that is not enough, there are several places horseplayers can go online to pull up a race replay on demand.

Trainer angles are still one of my favorite handicapping tools, but it is becoming tougher to find value as many handicappers have access to some type of trainer statistics and they are readily available both in print and online right along with the past performances.

So while all the extra information can be looked at as a blessing, it can also be a curse. More information in more horseplayers hands means lower prices. But thankfully there are still a few angles that many horseplayers don’t pay very much attention to.

5 Tips to Win More Races

With the Kentucky Derby betting ramping up for this weekend’s races, here are five angles that can put you ahead of 90% of your fellow bettors:

1. Track Bias: The horse you are betting on won his last race in gate to wire fashion. Would you be so enthusiastic to bet him back if you knew seven other horses that day also won on the front end? Or perhaps you would be more enthusiastic to find out he was the lone front end winner on a day where horses closing form the outer paths dominated the card?

It’s not an exact science, but it’s actually not that difficult to track the track bias at your local track. Take notes while watching the races, taking note of running position and where the best part of the racing strip seems to be. Look over the charts the following day and determine if there was a bias.

It’s also important to note that if you do see four or five horses win on the front end, you have to ask yourself if those horses were supposed to win. Discount what you may think is a speed friendly strip if many of the horses were favorites or lone speed. You won’t find a strong bias very often but when you do you have a strong edge over the rest of the betting public when those horses run back.

2. Pedigree: Turf, maiden, and two year old races can be confusing to many horseplayers, but if you are a student of pedigree, it will help you find winners at generous prices. This is where BRIS past performances can help. They list sire and dam information that can be very valuable. In a maiden race if a dam has dropped four foals to race and they have all won and two of them are stakes winners, you have some valuable information that most of the betting public does not have.

Another good place to look up pedigrees at no cost is at http://www.pedigreequery.com. BRIS offers a CD-ROM called Maiden Stats that is well worth the $80 investment. While players that buy the track program stare at the limited data in their program, you can have a real edge here and it can lead to generous prices when well bred horses make their debut or make their first start on the grass.

3. Pace: Just because you see a line of “1’s” in a horses running lines does not mean that horse will be on the lead. It’s important for a good handicapper to use some type of pace figures. You will be surprised how often the horse with all the “1’s” has no chance of getting to the front end. The old saying “Pace Makes the Race” really is true. The only way to map out how a race is going to be run is to use pace figures. Both BRIS and TrackMaster past performances include pace figures or there is plenty of software out there to help you come up with your own.

4. Cost of Wagering: It’s hard to believe there are still account wagering services charging 25 cents just for the privilege of making a wager. It’s still even harder to believe that most horseplayers totally disregard what the takeout rate at tracks are. Why anyone in their right mind would bet on a trifecta at Philadelphia Park where the takeout is 30% is beyond me. The takeout on a trifecta in New York is 25%. At Keeneland the takeout is only 19%.

Be aware of the takeout for the tracks you play, and if they are too high you might want to consider changing your favorite track to one without such a surcharge. Three or four percentage points might not sound like a lot, but multiply it by the number of wagers you make during the year and the difference can be enormous.

Look for value with your wagering dollars, which includes rebates. Some wagering services offer rebates even for the small player. Even picking up a rebate as small as 2 or 3% could mean the difference of turning a losing year into a winning one. Rebates are out there, take advantage of them!

5. Wagering With Discipline: Many good handicappers lose money year in and year out because they don’t use their heads when betting. If you have read any handicapping book the key phrase is “value.” But another word that may be more important in the world of simulcasting and online wagering is “discipline” With dozens of tracks and literally hundreds of races to wager on each and every day, there is no way to become a winning horseplayer without using discipline.

Easier said than done.

Keep it simple. Only wager on tracks that you follow. If you follow two circuits that gives you 18-20 opportunities a day to make a profit. If your bankroll is $400 a day, don’t make twenty $20 wagers. Don’s make ten $40 wagers. Look for three to five strong wagering opportunities a day and devote the majority of your daily bankroll to those races. Use the rest of your bankroll to make minimum wagers on several of the other races.

If the races you feel strongest about don’t pan out, don’t panic and wager more on races where your opinion is not as strong late in the day to try to get back to even. Stick with your game plan, even if that mans picking up The Daily Racing Form and getting a head start on the following days races.

Another mistake some horseplayers make is getting too hyped up for marquee races like the Kentucky Derby or the Breeders’ Cup. In the grand scheme of things the Derby is just one of a 1000 or more races you are going to bet on each year. Treat it that way.

The bottom line is you don’t have to be a genius to be a winning horseplayer. Do your homework, use discipline, and be smart on what you wager on and who you wager with. Keep records and analyze the results to see where your strengths and weaknesses are.

Use the tools available to you like track bias reports, speed and pace figures, or make your own. Wager at tracks with sensible takeout rates, and wager with a account wagering service that offers rebates. Use your head when betting, and you too can be one of the few and proud: A Winning Horseplayer.

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Betting on Horse Races

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Bonuses for Online Slots at the Casino

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Betting on the Super Bowl

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The Super Bowl is less than 3 weeks away and the NFL is down to its last 4 teams. This weekend ends with Conference Championship Sunday where the winners will earn a trip to New York/New Jersey to play in Super Bowl 48. With all of the pomp and circumstance that surrounds the big game, […]

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