Money Management

by admin on April 11, 2014

The science of investing in sporting events has left many handicappers and professional gamblers raking in the cash from their offshore sportsbook accounts. I say investing because a sound handicapping approach supplemented with good money management skills virtually takes all of the gambling out of online sports betting. Sure, you are still placing bets and “gambling”, but with the right tools behind you, year in and year out you can make money in this field just like we do.

Betting on sports is not a 50-yard dash sprint, but a very long distance race and the sports better has to look at this way. There will be many ups and downs along the way and this is why a proper money management system must be in place before you take your first piece of the action. Today, I hope to help you learn a few tips and tricks that will save you money in the long run.

One may ask the question, If you can pick a greater percentage of winners than losers, why do you need a money management plan? Well the answer is simple. If you can pick more winners than losers, say 55%, but do not have a money plan, you will lose. Plain and simple.

bankroll-management

Most betters agree that a set unit price per play is that way to go. I am not going to go into the Kelly Criterion in this article, because I believe that if a capper has plays that he believes has a greater value than what the oddsmaker posted, then it is up to him to make the decision to rate his plays accordingly. This article is aimed for betters, who can pick the right games yet still lose money, the beginning better, and the better who uses a service to pick games and still loses money.

Breaking Even

Lets take the NBA for this example and we will assume that we lay –110 on all sides and totals. Let us also assume that we can hit 55%, or we use a service that picks 55% winners. Now lets take a look at what the ideal should be. Say we have 438 bets, including sides and totals for the year. That is 241 winners and 147 losing tickets. We played at a set unit per play, a 5000-dollar bankroll at 2% per unit would be 100 per bet.

For this example I am going to use 110 to include the juice. This equals 100 X 241 = $24,100 dollars won, minus 110 X 147 = $16,170. So $24,100 – $16,170 = $7,930. This equates to approximately 79.3 units won and quite a nice profit.

Now lets take a better that starts out using a money management system, but then after a great winning streak, decides to vary his bets and increase them. Say he starts out the season going 62-40@ 120 per play, 62 X 100 = 6200, minus 40 X 110 = 4000, $2200 up.

So Mr. No-Money-Management, No Discipline decides to get greedy and up his bets to 5%, 250 per play, to capitalize on his exquisite handicapping skills and really cash in. Now we all know the he is not going to stay hitting 61% for the entire season, so he hits a bad losing streak.

Going 15-25 on his next 40 bets, even though for the season, 77-65 ( 54.22%), he is still above the required win percentage to win money, 52.38%. But going 15-25 translates into the following: 15 X 227 = 3405, minus 25 X 250 = 6250, for a net of NEGATIVE 2,845, and going negative for the season. If he would have kept his original unit price of 100 per play, he would have won 1500 and lost 2750 on his bad run of 40 wagers, however, for the season he would still be positive, not negative.

This is just one example of why, even though you can pick 55% winners, you still must have your head in the right place regarding money management. If not, a bad streak can wipe you out. In the last example, the better wanted to increase his profits, he got greedy, he was looking for a 50-yard dash, and look what ended up happening. Went broke and fell out of the race. So he has to play the rest of the season not even starting over, but starting negative, and chances are this type of better will increase his unit price again, to get himself out of a hole, when in fact he is just digging it much deeper.

On paper, it is easy to see and understand, but doing it in the real world is much different. In all of my time spent in this industry, the number one thing I have learned has got to be patience. It is a must. Without it you will crumble. You have got to have the will to sit there throughout a losing streak, understanding that you handicapping does not suck, and that losing streaks happen to everyone.

The point of 1 to 2 % unit of your bankroll is so that when losing streaks happen, you will not blow your whole bankroll. You need your unit to be small enough that you can go on an extended losing streak, and not get wiped out.

Even picking winners is not going to make you money. For a lot of folks, they believe that is all they have to do. I am sure every sports better out there knows one, if not many of these types of people. I believe the root of it is greed and lack of patience. Take a look again at my first example, the guy who picked his 55%, and stayed with a solid money program the whole way through. A profit of 7930 off of a 5000 bankroll. That is a return of 158.6% on your money. Let me say that again, A RETURN OF 158.6% ON YOUR MONEY. If that isn’t enough you for, then I suggest you look into a different industry.

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Betting on Horse Races

by admin on March 11, 2014

horse-racingIf you are looking for an edge with your horse racing betting then you are going to have to put in a lot of hard work to find one. You’ll have to remember that the name of the game is beating the other guys at the track, or if you are betting online then the other guys on their computer. If you can be ahead of those other players, then you are going to put yourself in a great spot to profit by the end of your session and especially at the end of your betting year.

In order to learn how to watch races and trips you are going to put some time in at the track. This is an acquired skill that has some art to it as well. When you review races make sure you are paying attention not only to your horse, but also the other horses in the field. Get out your Racing Form and project how you think the race will turn out. Then when you are watching the film try to figure out why each horse placed where they did.

Horse racing betting isn’t for the lazy. If you want to be successful then you have to have the will power, intelligence, time, and hard work into taking detailed notes about everything, from how the horses look heading into the post to how the trainers get their horses ready each day. This is where workouts come in. If you watch every single work you’ll have a great feel for the horse, but unless you are a professional this is going to be impossible.

What you need to do is have a game plan and know which trainers work their horses lightly to get them fit without showing everyone how good it is. There are other trainers out there who train their horses fast, but then the horse isn’t fit enough to win a race. These are great tidbits to know.

Smart players in horse racing betting know that they do not have to bet on every race. If you are looking for action on every single run then you most likely won’t be ahead in the end. As far as looking for value, most horse bettors don’t look to bet a 2-1 shot straight, but they’ll use that runner either horizontally or vertically in the exotics.

That’s the best way to put the take out in your favor. You’ll also want to limit your losses, but not your winnings. You’ll see novices at the track betting $100 on a 3-1, but if they feel good about a 15-1 then they’ll back off and only wager $20. If you really think there is value there then you should go for the jugular and not settle for less.

Most Popular Horse Races

The horse racing season can be broken down into two major events: the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. The Triple Crown includes three races separated by five weeks in early May and June. This includes the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. The most popular of these races for gambling purposes is generally the Kentucky Derby betting. This is because this is the first race of the Triple Crown and there are generally more top horses participating. The odds are more spread out and there are multiple favorites.

The Preakness Stakes has several of the top horses from the Kentucky Derby. There are fewer horses, however, as the race is only two weeks after the Derby and many of the owners and trainers do not like to race their horses that often. If the winner of the Kentucky Derby wins the Preakness, then the Belmont will receive as much attention as the Derby. The Belmont Stakes is three weeks after the Preakness. There will be several of the top horses from the Kentucky Derby that didn’t race in the Preakness, but very few horses will race at all three events.

The Breeder’s Cup takes place in late October and early November at Santa Anita Park in Los Angeles. This is where many of the two year olds compete to become relevant for the Triple Crown the next season. The Triple Crown only features 3 year old horses. Therefore, a horse can only compete for the Triple Crown once in its racing career.

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